2007年危机之前数据
最新人口数据
我国总人口达499万人
（2009-09-28 5.35pm）
（新加坡讯）统计局今天发表的人口报告显示，截至今年6月底，我国的总人口达4,987,600人，比一年前升3.1%。
其中，373万是公民及永久居民，而125万是非居民。
我国公民达320万，比一年前的316万多1.1%，而永久居民则从一年前的48万增加至53万。
http://realtime.zaobao.com/2009/09/090928_30.shtml
三年增加51万人。如果按照人均贡献GDP相同的估计的话，GDP年增速单因人口增加就是 4%
按家庭3人的规模计算，这3年HDB的需求增加就是40000套啊！Great!
房地产的漂亮支撑和GDP的良好数据就是这样的。
What’s next?
………………………………………………….
2# hwwca
狮子能不能介绍一下这个是怎么算的？4%的分母是什么？
而HDB新房一年远低于40000套，怎么购呢？不知道当局是如何规划每年HDB数量的。必须要加快建房速度才行啊。。。。。。。
建的新组屋也是只给公民的呀。。。 只要组屋总数比公民多， 再适当的调整点可以转售组屋的数量给PR吧。。。 建太多新的也不一定有那么多公民去买呀。。。
再就是，建组屋用地是大事， 政府要讨论来讨论去， 结果实行建好的时候和需求高峰的时候，总是有时间差的。。。
其实政府已经早就准备了建房子缓冲那么多新PR了。。。
不是早就有很多工程开始了吗。。。只是有可能这次的购房热潮来的太快了。。。。。。
再说， 我猜政府认为PR 都是人才，应该2个PR 更有钱， 有很多的会去买公寓。。。。 公寓不是有很多都可以买咯。。。。
只是现实中的很多PR 买不起公寓。。。。。。
赌场开业（官方不再一直保持用“综合娱乐中心”这个名词了）在即，本地人（包括PR）太多，是不是抑制了可容纳的“游赌客”的量？赌场是吸外钱的而不是想自己玩。如此看来，设法淘汰一些出局是不是一个办法？？？
回复 8# hwwca
半年过去了。。。。。。。。。。。
Singapore pulls the welcome mat for foreign workers
Saturday, 06 February 2010
Ben Bland
Asia Sentinel
In a bid to radically retool its economy, the island republic says it will retrain the locals
Nearly 18 months after the low point of the global financial crisis, the world seems to be getting back to normal despite the shrill voices who warned that the face of capitalism has changed forever.
Banks and hedge funds are once again making multi-billion dollar profits and are handing out multi-million dollar bonuses thanks to the profusion of cheap credit.
However, there’s one place where the crisis appears to have caused irreparable damage and that is the trade-dependent city-state of Singapore, where the government has made it clear that years of stellar growth fuelled by the import of cheap migrant workers from around Asia are over.
During the last two crisis-hit years, growth slowed to 1.1 percent in 2008 and declined by 2.1 percent in 2009 after four decades of average real growth of more than 8 percent annually.
Following a wide-ranging review of Singapore’s economy by the high-level, government-appointed Economic Strategies Committee, the ruling People’s Action Party has accepted what many Singaporeans have argued for some time. It is no longer sustainable to grow the economy by expanding the foreign workforce now that foreigners make up more than a third of the nearly 5 million people in Singapore, compared to 1990, when only 14 percent of the then population of 3 million were foreigners.
The influx of foreign workers has caused considerable antagonism among native Singaporeans, not only because they are regarded as taking jobs away from the locals, but also partly because so many of the foreigners are from China. That has raised suspicions that the government is seeking maintain the dominance of the ethnic Chinese, who make up 74 percent of the population but have the lowest birth rate among Singapore’s three main ethnic groups. Singapore has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, at 1.28 births per female. Among the Chinese population, the fertility rate is 1.14, compared to 1.91 among the Malay population and 1.19 among the Indian population.
“We cannot increase the number of foreign workers as liberally as we did over the last decade, or else we will run up against real physical and social limits,” the ESC’s report states. “Further, if access to labor is too easy, companies will have little incentive to invest in productivity improvements, which will affect our efforts to upgrade the skills and wages of lower-income Singaporean workers.”
The solution proposed by the ESC, which was made up of ministers and leading business figures, is to slowly increase the levies that companies must pay to bring in foreign workers and try to increase the productivity of the local workforce, which lags behind that of rival city-economy Hong Kong and other developed nations.
Over the last decade, productivity has grown at just 1 percent a year. The government believes that if that can be increased to 2-3 percent over the next 10 years, Singapore’s economy can grow at 3 to 5 percent annually.
The ESC, whose recommendations have been accepted by the government, emphasizes that even this much-reduced annual growth projection is still ahead of the 2 percent-3 percent achieved by most developed economies.
However, Singapore lacks the social safety net that most developed, and a growing number of developing, nations have put in place. With no unemployment benefits, minimal subsidies for healthcare and little in the way of a wider welfare state, the prospect of structurally slower growth is not good news for lower-income Singaporeans.
Theoretically, by increasing productivity and limiting the number of foreign workers, the wages of the poorest Singaporeans should rise. But the government’s pledge to allow “all Singaporeans to share in increased prosperity” is based on the same self-help philosophy that has underlined the PAP’s economic approach up until now. Despite the ESC’s lofty rhetoric, such economic transformations are notoriously difficult to bring about.
The ESC report is thin on actual proposals to promote productivity beyond advocating “up-skilling” and suggesting that a “national productivity fund” and “productivity and innovation center” be established. Previous campaigns to boost Singapore’s sagging productivity, including one led by now-retired mascot Teamy the Bee, made little headway.
Some, such as Kenneth Jeyaretnam, the leader of the Reform Party, one of a number of small opposition groups, doubt the government’s sincerity.
“There must be serious doubts about the government’s ability to deliver given that the track record in this regard of the last ten years has been so poor and whether anything more than lip service is being paid to weaning the economy off its dependence on cheap foreign labour,” he said, in response to the ESC report.
One key problem is that national productivity, like carbon emissions, is an “externality”. For any individual company there is no benefit in employing more expensive local workers and training them up when cut-price work gangs from Bangladesh or China can do the job for less.
Yet, as with carbon emissions, it is the nation and the wider world that pay the long-term price for the medium-term profits of the company. Increasing the foreign worker levy is one way to put this “externality” back on corporate balance sheets, the government believes. But it will be very hard for the government to whack up the levy enough to make a difference without stifling economic growth in the short term. For, as the ESC accepts, economic growth has become dependent on cheap migrant labor.
Take the construction sector, which has been a key engine of growth. While most developed nations use high-tech, steel-based construction techniques for major projects, Singapore is still reliant on concrete-based approaches. According to industry experts, this is largely because steel construction requires a highly skilled and therefore expensive workforce. Singaporean construction firms, by and large, prefer using more basic construction techniques that require large numbers of unskilled, cheap workers.
The profusion of imported, unskilled construction workers has in turn stifled the training of skilled local laborers. Weaning construction firms off their diet of cheap foreign workers who are accorded minimal employment rights and convincing them to employ, train and pay more money for Singaporeans will be a fraught task.
Other than the main focus on productivity, the ESC report contains the usual bombast about making Singapore “a leading cultural capital” and “a hub for the arts”. The overbearing regime of Lee Kuan Yew and his son, the Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, still struggles to understand why a government cannot simply instruct its people to be creative and artistic.
There’s a nod to Lee Kuan Yew’s long-held fantasy of bringing nuclear power to Singapore and ending the city-state’s dependency on importing energy from sometimes quarrelsome neighbors such as Indonesia and Malaysia.
And, with Singapore’s ambitious land reclamation plans coming up against the buffers of the Lion City’s maritime borders, the ESC report also suggests exploring whether Singapore can become the world’s first underground city. In what is already one of the world’s most crowded countries, the prospect of extending development below ground level and creating a nation of troglodytes does not fill many with excitement.
Such schemes aside, the government’s acceptance that it needs to restructure the economy is welcome if not overdue. But the real challenge lies in conjuring up specific plans and then successfully implementing them.
Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam, who headed up the ESC, has promised to unveil a “bold” budget later this month to help push toward the goals outlined in the report. That has sparked speculation that, after dipping into its reserves for the first time ever last year to support an economic stimulus package, the government may do the same this year.
Ultimately, the thrifty Singaporean government does not believe in spending its way out of trouble.
But, without investing in the radical reform of the education system and the retooling of the economy, the government’s ambitious plans will be hard to achieve.
http://www.asiasentinel.com/inde … 2285&Itemid=195
中国人多力量大之后的计划生育，非常激进。“新加坡《＝》中国”，相互学习，你中有我，我中有你啊！
中国会牺牲一代人，新加坡会牺牲几年中新移民（还有外劳）的利益。大与小不同，结果一样。
很多中国学子通过“1年硕士或Poly三年将国内自费换到新加坡来读——->找工作+准证——->PR——->公民”，很难行通啦。本地“拚教育产业”在中国的“新读书无用论”潮流的新加坡实践下将驻足。。。。。。。
下面这则新闻是七月份会直接赶人的。建筑劳工们，若你在中国出国劳务借的债尚未还清，小心了！！！
＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝
除了外劳税调高 建筑业非熟练外劳准证将淘汰
(2010-02-24)
● 林慧慧 报道
人力部公布的各行业外国劳工税都有所提高，而向来依赖外劳的建筑业除了须承担更高的劳工税外，也会受两项为调节外劳人数和外劳素质的新措施影响。
从明年7月1日起，建筑业非熟练外劳准证将被淘汰，所有外劳准证持有者必须至少持有最基本的技能评估证书。除此之外，人力部也将分阶段收紧建筑业的非传统来源外劳配额（Man-Year-Entitlement，简称MYE），这个按建筑工程合约总值来计算可雇用外劳人数的配额，将在接下来三年内减少 25%。
人力部昨天发表文告宣布外劳税的新税制细节时强调，在接下来三年分阶段调高外劳税是为了让受影响的雇主有时间做出调整，而提高劳工税主要是为调整雇主对外劳的需求，鼓励雇主投资于提高生产力。
财政部长尚达曼前天在新预算案声明中谈到调高外劳税时已透露，在提高生产力方面有很大改进空间的建筑业将面对更高的劳工税增幅。
目前，建筑业雇主每月需为每名熟练外劳缴150元劳工税。人力部将在接下来三年分五个阶段调高建筑业外劳的劳工税。
从今年7月1日起，熟练外劳的劳工税增加10元，达160 元。在2012年7月1日完成最后一次调整后，持有最基本技能评估证书的熟练外劳的劳工税将调高到300元。
不过当局也将让聘用较高技能外劳的雇主得到优惠，让他们缴付较低劳工税。那些具有至少四年工作经验并拥有专门技能的外劳将被归类为“更熟练工人” （Higher Skilled Worker），雇主到时只需为这类工人缴付每月200元的劳工税。
目前，本地劳动队伍中外籍员工占将近三分之一，人数超过100万人。随着我国近年来展开兴建两座综合度假胜地、大型商场和办公楼等多项大型工程，建筑业对外籍劳工的需求不断提高。单是建筑业引进本地的外劳人数就从 2007年底的18万人增加到去年底的24万5000人。
建筑业者聘请外劳的制度一直以来都跟服务业、制造业不同，建筑业者聘用外劳的制度中设有两道门槛：建筑商除了必须达到每聘用一名本地人（新加坡人或永久居民）才能聘用7名外籍劳工的比例，所能聘用的外劳人数也受限于他们手头上的建筑工程合约总值。
根据人力部非传统来源外劳配额的计算公式，价值60万元的建筑工程可获得13个申请权，这可让承包商给13名外劳各申请为期一年的工作准证。
不过随着当局宣布在接下来三年内逐步收紧非传统来源外劳的配额，锐减25%，建筑业者所能聘用的外劳人数将显著减少。
新加坡建筑商公会副主席卢肯尼受访时指出，虽然从较早前公布的经济战略委员会建议中已可预料政府会采取步骤减少引进外劳，不过没想到这次的调整相当显著，这对建筑商和承包商手头上的工程有一定影响。
他指出，由于这些已经在进行的工程都是根据目前的税制计算竞标价，所以一旦新税制今年7月生效，业者的运作成本肯定会提高。
联明集团人事部经理王俐群也对外劳税的增幅表示关注。她说，所幸当局是分阶段调高，由于手头上的工程大多能在今年完工，所以影响还不至于太大。她说，公司接下来竞标的建筑工