citi的分析师都改口了，No housing oversupply!!! 空头不死，多头不止。房价就是在大家纷纷预测房屋供应过量而会下跌的猜测下，逐渐的上涨。当越来越多的分析师改口说其实房屋并没有过量，空头被逐渐消灭，论坛里也没有什么看跌的言论时，房价才有可能跌。
其实看得最准的人永远是开发商，虽然他们偶尔也会出错，但准确率绝对超过其他人，跟着开发商的步调走才不会出错。当新加坡出现中国的情况，地价越来越高的时候，房价为什么会跌呢？老百姓打败开发商，散户打败大庄家总是很难的。
The expected rise in the supply of new HDB flats and private homes over the next few years will not lead to a housing oversupply in 2013 and 2014, according to an analyst from Citigroup.
Citigroup also believes that the current “severe shortage” of HDB flats is likely to offer support for mass-market prices and demand.
“We believe the prolonged period of under-building in the 2000s has resulted in the current severe housing shortage,” according to a report by Citi’s real estate analysts, headed by Wendy Koh.
“We estimate that the deficit in housing units is in excess of 50,000 currently and this undersupply situation will likely take several years to clear, just like the oversupply situation in the early 2000s.”
“With a severe shortage, we are not overly concerned about the rise in supply in both HDB and private residential units. A housing glut in 2013/14 is an unlikely scenario, based on our estimates.”
Contrary to the predictions of other analysts, the group’s forecasts indicate that the impending HDB supply and possible heightening of the income ceiling for new HDB flats will reduce HDB resale deals by seven to 15 percent, at most. It added that the impact on the private property market will be even smaller.
Ms. Koh also claimed that the shortage situation in the HDB market will support demand for and prices of suburban mass-market homes.
“Occupancy rate for mass-market properties are at an all-time high of 97.5 percent. With yields averaging at around 4.2 percent versus mortgage rates of just between 1.2-1.6 percent, investment demand for small units and mass-market units could remain strong,” she said.
However, the report warned that any additional price hikes or increase in volume in the mass-market sector may mean more property measures, as the government is watching the market closely.
呵呵，怎么算的啊，别忘了新加坡将近一半的人口是外国人。其实新加坡的房地产很不稳定的，因为流动人口太多了。除非移民政策又来一次防水，否则很难判断房地产供应是否过剩。
仁者见仁，智者见智罢了
假设新加坡房地产市场未来几年不会出现供过于求的情况
发展商肯定会在这个时候出手集体出售的项目
增加现有土地库存以在未来赚取更多盈利
可是目前的情况是发展商舍弃累积永久地契地段
反而选择投标99年的政府售地
采取速战速决的方式快买快卖
显然是对未来的市场展望有所顾虑
一半是外国人？没这么严重。而且外国人，要么是PR，要么是工作准证。前者相对很固定，后者跟新加坡的房子没什么关系。
总体来说房子不够，所以，下降可能不大。新加坡要受影响，估计，要么是像SARS那样的大恐慌，要么是周边国家，中国、印度、印尼、马来西亚出事儿了，那样会有很多抛售。
本地人应该对市场影响不了，怎么也算是个刚需、或刚投 :lol
在坡岛买房的外国人以印尼、马来西亚，近年还有中国、印度人居多，如果其中有一国出了事儿，应该是设法出来避难的人增多才对吧，怎么会抛售呢？
没那么严重。一般是出经济问题，国家[关键词屏蔽]不太可能。经济出问题，就需要抛售回去救急。
能到这儿来买房子的，肯定是富人，在国内有很大财产，如果国内财产没了，那这事儿就出太大了。不太可能
citi的分析员很烂！哈哈！
丁一个
大众的很多意见绝对有误导性，房地产市场喊跌也不是一两年了，很多人因此而错过购买时机，后悔不迭。房地产指数更是有误导性，房龄不同，地区不同的房产怎么能平均一下就给个指数呢。现在国内很多城市就很轻易的操控均价来欺骗老百姓，欺骗政府。只要少卖几套市区的房子，多卖几套郊区的房子，房产指数，均价都下来了。假如以为房市就此跌了，那就上当了。