在当下全球又一轮量化宽松的大环境下，这会不会成为政府也要采取行动的理由？
:lol;P:D
8月份制造业产值同比下挫2.2％ 我国可能陷入技术性衰退
（2012-09-27）夏婧 报道 [email protected]
电子业持续下滑加上运输工程业大幅萎缩，导致新加坡8月份制造业产值与去年同期相比下挫2.2％，这是近四个月来首次出现下跌，而明显逊于市场预期的数据也令一些经济师认为我国将陷入技术性衰退，新加坡金融管理局可能会放缓新元升值的步伐以刺激经济。
按照经济学定义，只要经济连续两个季度出现环比萎缩，就是步入技术性衰退。今年第二季度我国国内生产总值（GDP）已经环比萎缩0.7％。鉴于制造业产值与国内生产总值具有很强的关联性，最新公布的制造业数据逊色，预示着我国第三季经济将同样不理想。
若我国陷入技术性衰退，那么将是亚洲第一个步入经济衰退的经济体。除香港外，其他出口型经济体都在第二季取得扩张。
美国银行美林经济师蔡学敏指出，制造业产值疲弱预示新加坡将在第三季陷入轻度的技术性衰退。他预期第三季经济增长初步估计数字为1.1％，也就是说经季节性调整后，将出现1.7％的环比萎缩。这是继第二季之后再出现环比萎缩的情况。
巴克莱资本经济师梁伟豪也预期我国将在第三季陷入技术性衰退，并估算经季节性调整后，经济萎缩幅度为0.5％。若想避免萎缩情况的出现，那么9月份制造业产值经季节性调整后环比上扬幅度需高达20％。“尽管我们相信生物医药业将在9月回弹，但对于电子业和运输工程业，即使在全球经济有所好转和出口订单增加的情况下，也不太可能产生巨大变化。”
不过，他认为，这个技术性衰退将是短期的。鉴于一些资讯科技厂商可能在年底佳节前推出新产品，以及全球贸易状况渐提升，制造业和服务业或会在9、10月间取得一些改善，因此预测第四季的经济将取得环比5.0％的增幅。全年的经济增长预测则为2％。
金管局或放缓新元升值步伐
要怎么刺激？新币不是美元，只能在新加坡流通，印新币就是通胀，和中国道理一样。
新政府通常做法是通过调节新币兑换率上下限来控制通胀或刺激出口
技术性衰退，不是真的衰退，应该是基点过高吧。新加坡这种失业率和经济表现都救市，那还得了。市场一直担心再出降温措施。
通胀是很重要的限制因素。不过7月和8月的CPI有所下降，分别是4.0%和3.9%。
应该是7月和8月的CPI的上升速度有所放缓
Month Consumer Price Index (2009=100) Percentage Change Over Corresponding Period of Previous YearJan-2011106.35.5Feb-2011106.25.0Mar-2011106.45.0Apr-2011106.84.5May-2011107.44.5Jun-2011107.15.2Jul-2011108.75.4Aug-2011109.55.7Sep-2011109.35.5Oct-2011109.85.4Nov-2011110.45.7Dec-2011110.45.5Jan-2012111.44.8Feb-2012111.14.6Mar-2012112.05.2Apr-2012112.65.4May-2012112.85.0Jun-2012112.85.3Jul-2012113.14.0Aug-2012113.83.9MonthConsumer Price Index (2009=100) Percentage Change Over Corresponding Period of Previous Year
有可能10月会有动作
新加坡通胀放缓 为放松银根提供更大空间
彭博社 （译：朱爱伦 2012年09月28 展望
新加坡的通胀于8月份连续第二个月放缓，令金管局有更大空间来放松货币政策，从而刺激经济增长。
统计局在9月24日发表的文告中表示，消费物价指数年比提高3.9%。彭博社对13名经济师的调查结果显示，指数增幅的预估中位数为3.8%。该指数于7月份提高了4%，而8月份的核心通胀率为2.2%。
物价升幅放缓令新加坡金管局有更大空间在10月放宽政策，由于出口下降促使经济师(包括星展集团(DBS Group)的Irvin Seah)表示，新加坡面临技术性衰退的风险。截至今年6月底的季度里，新加坡的国内生产总值(GDP)比上个季度来得低，因此新加坡政府于8月下调了2012年的经济增长预测。
星展集团驻新加坡的经济师Irvin Seah表示：“在技术性衰退的乌云笼罩下，通胀下降无疑将促使当局采取货币宽松政策。我们预期金管局将把新元升值的速度放慢。”
金管局是通过新元汇率来控制通胀。它把新元与一篮子货币挂钩，让新元汇率在一个保密的区间内浮动，并以调整区间的斜度、宽度和中央点来控制新元汇率上升或下降的幅度。
金管局于今年4月表示将加快新元升值的速度，以抑制价格压力。
金管局及贸工部在9月24日公布的每月报告中针对物价趋势表示：“鉴于经济环境大致上萎靡不振，商家把工资及其他业务成本转嫁予消费者的幅度将会比今年较早时候放缓。”
根据该报告显示，8月份的消费物价比7月份提高了0.6%
去年是如何避免技术衰退的，高手说一下呢
楼上说个大概吧，新加坡出了什么政策避免了去年的技术衰退的
新币主动贬值？？
小国，而且进口，出口成本对他影响很大，自然是通过汇率来调控。
好吧，我的理解是，大量买进美元。
我觉得要跟美元指数结合来看，如果大势所趋美元上涨，那新币也只好跟着贬，就是要看新币是不是比其它非美货币贬得更多，才能判断政府是否有意主动贬值来救经济
楼上的好贴,膜拜了.
新加坡金管局陷于两难境地
:lol;P:D
Singapore Central Bank’s Catch 22 Situation
Talk that Singapore’s monetary policy will be eased soon is growing louder as the economy teeters on the brink of recession. Yet, high inflation puts the country’s central bank in a bind and its next policy move is by no means a done deal, economists say.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), the country’s central bank, is expected to unveil its half-yearly policy statement next week, possibly coinciding with the release of data showing how the economy performed in the third quarter.
The MAS sets monetary policy by allowing the Singapore dollar to rise or fall against an undisclosed basket of currencies. In its last policy statement in April, the MAS said it would allow a modest and gradual rise of its currency with a slightly steeper slope of appreciation to keep inflation in check.
So if it decides to ease monetary policy it would do so by slowing the rate of appreciation in the local currency (SGD=), which was trading at 1.2335 to the U.S. dollar on Wednesday.
Judging by the latest data, Singapore’s economy, which shrank 0.7 percent in the second quarter from the previous one on an annualized seasonally adjusted basis, probably slipped into a recession with a further contraction in the third quarter, economists say.
Singapore’s manufacturing sector contracted for a third straight month in September, a survey released late Tuesday showed. August factory output fell 2.2 percent from a year earlier, and non-oil domestic exports in the same month slumped 10.6 percent from the year before, hurt by a fall of almost 29 percent in shipments to the European Union, Singapore’s largest market.
“Speculation that the MAS will ease monetary policy is definitely heating up as we head towards the next central bank meeting,” said Justin Harper, market strategist at IG Markets.
“But it will be a juggling act for the central bank because inflation has been stubborn and they may want to see inflation come down further before they ease,” he added.
Stubborn Inflation
Singapore’s consumer price index rose 3.9 percent in August from a year earlier, the lowest in almost two years. While moderating, inflation has been higher than the central bank has anticipated because of lofty property and car prices.
The MAS said in July that full-year inflation was expected to stay in the upper half of its official forecast range of 3.5 to 4.5 percent.
Vishnu Varathan, an economist at Mizuho Corporate Bank in Singapore, says while he expects the MAS to ease monetary policy slightly because of the weak economic outlook, the inflation backdrop means the decision will be a close call.
“There is no easy policy response to the contradiction of fragile demand conditions and supply-side inflation risks,” Varathan said in a note on Wednesday.
“The inclination should still be dovish and so we hold on to our view that the Sing dollar slope could be reduced gently, but this is a very close call. Increasingly, there is a chance that the MAS could choose to leave its present monetary policy stance intact,” he said.
For some analysts, easing inflation meant the MAS did have room for maneuver.
“With inflation now below 4 percent year-on-year, there is less reason for Singapore to keep the appreciation of its exchange rate at an accelerated pace,” said Manish Jaradi, senior investment strategist and DBS Bank in Singapore.
“We expect the monetary authority to flatten the (upward) slope of Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate band to 2 percent year from the current estimated 3 percent pace,” he said.
If the MAS loosens monetary policy next week it would join major central banks, including those in the U.S. Japan and Australia, which have all eased monetary policy in the past month to shore up their economies.
With China’s economy slowing, the debt crisis in Europe undermining demand for exports and U.S. growth still fragile, the outlook for the world economy remains weak.
“The problem is the weakness in the economy is mostly because of what is happening outside Singapore, so the MAS needs to be careful as they cannot control that,” said Harper at IG Markets. “I think it’s too soon for them to start tweaking policy just yet.”
– By CNBC’s Dhara Ranasinghe
亚洲国家本轮刺激举措更具针对性
http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20121002/ecb114621.asp
更多经济师担心 我国陷技术性衰退可能性上升
（2012-10-03）
若我国陷入技术性衰退，将是亚洲第一个步入经济衰退的经济体。除香港外，其他出口型经济体都在第二季取得扩张。
王阳发 报道 [email protected]
近期发布的数据皆欠佳，加上昨日再发出萎缩信号，致使越来越多经济师担心，新加坡经济陷入技术性衰退的可能正在上升。此外，市场预期不包括住宿和私人陆路交通费用在内的核心通胀率（core inflation）将下降，使到更多人期待金融管理局本月将放缓新元的上升速度来提振经济。
新加坡采购与材料管理学院（SIPMM）昨天发布的数据显示，我国制造业继续呈萎缩迹象，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）在9月份进一步下跌至48.7点，这是该指数连续第三个月萎缩。
这个指数在7月份跌破50点的关键水平，在8月份比7月份进一步跌了0.7点，9月份则再跌0.4点
钱进不了楼市，就进股市把