转载一篇关于马来西亚Iskandar房地产的文章。
我的观点是Iskandar地多人少，很难炒作。买房就是应该到人多地地方，新加坡，香港和中国都有机会。Iskandar机会渺茫。
Sunday, July 6, 2014
Iskandar – Chinese developers’ next pot of gold?
Chinese developers are flocking to Iskandar Malaysia, given the slow-down in property demand back home and growth potential seen in the Johor region. They also prefer building huge “township-style” projects. And Iskandar can offer large tracts of land.
A total of 5 mainland developers are already present in Iskandar. They have about 150ha of land, with a further 2,000ha to come via reclamation. Three companies have already announced projects that will yield at least 13,000 homes by end 2017.
While launches in the past 2 years by Chinese developers have targeted mainly Malaysians and Singaporeans, there are increasing interests in Iskandar properties from mainland Chinese customers. The Malaysia “My Second Home” scheme, which allows long-stay visas for some foreign buyers, have attracted more than 5,000 Chinese nationals so far. This constitutes close to 22% of the total number of participants in the scheme. The hefty stamp duty in Singapore has also channelled Chinese buyers to choose Iskandar over Singapore during the past few years.
The preference amongst Chinese developers for building Townships means a huge number of units per project. Gungdong-based developerCountry Garden launched the first phase of its Danga Bay project, consisting of 9,400 units, in August 2013. About 6,000 units have been sold at average prices of around RM720psf. About 70% of the buyers were said to be from Malaysia and Singapore.
Another Chinese developer, Guangzhou R&F, has opened its Singapore sales gallery recently to showcase its latest development, which will consist of about 3,200 units for the first phase. Indicative pricing is about RM1,000psf or RM1 million for a 1,000sqft three-bedder.
This put the sustainability of Iskandar in question due to supply possibly outstripping demand. So who will take up the massive supply of houses in Iskandar? Country Garden expects that Chinese buyers will make up 35% for its Danga Bay project, while locals and Singaporeans will make up 40% and 20% of the total buyers respectively.
Chinese developers are optimistic that Johor will be akin to Shenzhen and the units being built would eventually be taken up. And Iskandar Malaysia, which is almost 3 times the size ofSingapore, is already being positioned as the “Shenzhen” of Malaysia. Shenzhen is about twice the geographical area of Hong Kong. Iskandar Malaysia currently has a population of 1.6 million while Singapore has 5.3 million. Shenzhen’s population is a whopping 11 million while Hong Kong has 7.2 million.
Even developer themselves have acknowledged that there could be an oversupply in the short term. This is because the Johor and Singapore populations do have an upper limit, which will soon be reached. But they also believe that when transport links like the MRT links to Johor and the Singapore-K.L. High Speed Rail come online, the upper limit will be raised.
Meantime, Singaporeans continued to pour money into residential properties in IskandarMalaysia. This is despite the higher real property gains tax (RPGT) that buyers will have to pay starting from this year. The RPGT is now 30% if a property is sold within five years of purchase and 5% thereafter.
A reason for the continual strong demand offered by prospective buyers is that these properties are still cheaper than Singapore properties. Another reason could be that loans from Malaysian banks for these properties can be generous. A loan package from CIMB Bank can offer as much as 85% financing, unlike in Singapore where buyers have to subject themselves to the grieves from TDSR/ABSD.
Info source: ST, The Star Online
Those who have been following our blog will know our position on investing in Iskandar Malaysia. The manner in which Chinese developers have started “carpet bombing” the region with mega township projects add further to our concerns. Despite the talks about increasingly numbers of Chinese buyers looking to invest in Iskandar Malaysia, the figure is still low compared to the amount of new housing units that will hit the market in the next 2 – 3 years. So unless the influx of Chinese buyers continue to multiply at the same time, the current oversupply scenario looks set to become worse. And whose to say that the current supply glut seen in many of the major cities within China – due primarily to a combination of over-building by eager developers and softening of demand – will not happen in Johor? If that will to happen, one can reasonably expect the Chinese developers to employ similar tactics that they have used back home to move units, i.e. drop prices. So all the “first movers” into Iskandar may end up holding the short end of the stick.
But what about the expected increase in demand from both sides of the Causeway when the additional transport links go into operation? Would that not help boost demand a couple of folds? While many expect demand for homes in Johor to increase exponentially once the MRT extension/high-speed rail links come to fruition, the wife and I just cannot fathom tens of thousands of Singaporean actually moving across the Causeway to live and commute daily to work in Singapore… high-speed rail notwithstanding. This is unless 16 September 1963 happens all over again, which (at least to us) is improbable.
Some may say that the wife and I are worrying a tad too much. Others may even call us wet blankets. Whatever the case, we are definitely giving this a miss… for now at least (never say never), irrespective of how cheap/affordable Iskandar properties are currently compared toSingapore.
And since we were on the subject of Shenzhen and Hong Kong, below is one perspective of what life is like for someone who lives in Shenzhen and commutes daily to work in Hong Kong:
有道理 刚开始 碧桂园卖 729psf 现在富力卖1000psf 开发商自己把价格涨上去了 这咋回事
已死干大就是个坑，很多人以为最后上岸了，其实噩梦才刚刚开始。这里面包括投资者，和发展商（貌似我应该说KFS）
这对夫妻挺有名的，经常出没showroom写房评
一直没看好意思敢打
别总拿深圳说事.深圳房价涨是在全国房价大涨的背景下涨的,不是靠香港人撑起的,深圳2004年之前房价也没大涨.之后大涨一是因为中国房价处于上升时期,深圳也一样.而是因为深圳本身经济的发展.三是因为深圳的地越来越少.
拥有HDB不是不能有海外房产？？？？
请问明目张胆去JB买房的不怕政府查？难道都是公寓屋主？？？
以前参加一个活动认识一个新加坡人在DHL做客户经理，是个40岁的老姑娘。 卖掉新加坡的房子去新山买了套LANDED的那种别墅。也是设计给新加坡人的，胜在有花园，有保安，也是有地住宅，上下错落2层，只要40万新元。现在这个女经理就开车来回新马上班。她说为了养老买的房子。我想说，ZF会放任这样的钱都流到邻国？？
出台政策是早晚的事吧。 到时候不用马国政府限制，只要ZF在出台什么政策，不许坡人去买，这销路怎么办？这钱怎么养老？这货币兑换的风险，如果20年，30年后，新马兑换率有变动，这风险谁承担呢？
现在你不用担心了，除非愿意住海里，想买也买不了，机会已经过去了。
就是说买了的只能自住了，作为投资想转手的就难了。。。
怎么就难呢？ 再说一遍，很普通的逻辑：如果马来西亚本地华人也想买这区的屋子，他买的价格和你的是一样的，不会便宜。便宜的也有，但房屋质量，保安等都不好，一分钱一分货。
有的投资者是靠信仰在支撑，对于我自己，是不会考虑那里的房产的。。。
赶脚碧桂园成功搞个大项目，就可以吸收到很多投资。
推出一个大计划，这得多少银子，如果风头不对，把马来亚银行贷光光了跑路了
对于已经投资的了的，我只能呵呵呵呵呵呵呵。。。
赞成！ 表面看起来好像可以类比，其实还是不一样，中国多少人口，马来多少人口，多少地。
原来大家买房子是为了倒手赚一笔，所以才有了以上这么多担心和抱怨。房子是买来住的，不是为了赚快钱的，大家的出发点错了。