文 / 朱轶天 华尔街见闻 2015年09月04日 02:02:46
在对股市的历史估值进行研究后，诺贝尔经济学奖获得者罗伯特席勒（Robert Shiller）周四表示，他认为未来股市有“大幅下滑的风险”。
即使在最近的危机拉低了道琼斯工业平均指数、标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克之后，Shiller向CNBC表示，市场依然过高。
截至周三收盘，尽管涨势强劲，但道指依然处于修正区间。标普和纳斯达克综合指数的反弹将指数拉出修正区间。
Shiller用周期调整后市盈率（CAPE）来衡量股市估值。CAPE是股价与过去10年平均利润的比例。
他说：“CAPE目前大约是25。它处于高位。历史平均水平约为17，这样道指应该大约为11,000点，标普应该处于1300点附近。”这样的回撤意味着股市将下跌超30%。
Shiller表示，他并不是这会发生，而是CAPE已经发出了警告。
事实上，从历史上来看，股市可能继续上升，因为CAPE曾经达到过更高水平。
他说：“月度CAPE在2000年达到44的顶峰，随后，股市大幅下跌，一度跌至13，并于2007年上升至27，随后股市再度下跌。”
Shiller表示：“没有人能真正预测市场，但我认为这是一个危险的时候。”他还表示，他本人已经减少了投资组合中美股的持仓。他说：“但是每个人是不同的，人们需要考虑自己的风险状况。”
英文原文：
Risk of big stock drops grows: Robert Shiller
Matthew J. Belvedere | @Matt_Belvedere CNBC
Based on his research of historical stock market valuations, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller said Thursday he sees the “risk of substantial declines” ahead.
Even with the recent turmoil, which pushed the Dow industrials, S&P 500, and Nasdaq into correction last week and again this week, “the market is high now,” the Yale University professor told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
As of Wednesday’s close, the Dow remained in a correction, despite strong gains. But the rally in the S&P and Nasdaq composite pulled those measures out of correction territory.
Shiller measures valuation with his cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio, which looks at price divided by 10-year average earnings.
“The CAPE ratio right now is around 25. It’s high,” he said. The historic average is around 17, a level that would correspond with about 11,000 on the Dow and 1,300 on S&P 500. A retracement to those levels would represent more than 30 percent declines.
Shiller said he’s not saying that will happen, just the CAPE ratio serves as a “warning signal.”
In fact, based on history, the stock market could climb because the CAPE has been much higher in the past before the air came out of the market, he said.
“The monthly CAPE ratio reached a peak of 44 in the year 2000 and that was followed by an important [market] drop. It went down to 13 and came back up to 27 in 2007 and it was followed by another drop,” he said.
“Nobody can really forecast the market accurately. But I think this is a risky time,” Shiller concluded—adding he personally has been reducing his portfolio’s exposure to U.S. stocks. “[But] everyone’s different. People need to look at their own risk situation.”
席勒已经这么喊了一两年了
估计这次与成功更近了
SPX monthly图，要形成头部形态，sma30必须要先探到。
现在已经有了，接下来的几个月如果再次来到1850水平，就危险了。
任何估值如果没有参照无风险收益率都是耍流氓
不明觉厉，好高深，我还是回去看A股吧，哈哈。
你贴的这个图的作者分不清两个估值：价值估值和市场估值
价值估值可以通过risk free rate +premium来估算。
市场估值是完全是greed and panic.
想要用rsik free rate来correlate greed and panic当然没门。
这种砖家的话就和屁没啥两样，这诺奖是白瞎了
三哥最厉害！
yeah
你这是在讨论债券市场还是股票市场？？
我个人也是觉得美股要开跌了。如果冲着这个方向去，投资方面各位有什么好点子？
如果觉得要跌了，三倍做空的etf赶紧上呀
都说了是诺贝尔奖得主。诺贝尔奖经济学得主在地位上相对于理科的理论科学家。
理论上很伟大，就是离现实差了10万八千里。