我彻底迷惑了，这结果也相差太大了。
在Propertyguru 网站今天发表题为“The reality of the resale market”，表示1月份二手私宅跌 0.98%，与此前SRX公布的涨2.3%形成明显的对比。Propertyguru以前从没有自己公布数据，这次特意分析并公布很有可能是觉得SRX公布的结果与一般人的实际感觉相差太远。
Average resale prices of private properties across Singapore – excluding landed homes – fell by 0.98 percent month-on-month during January contrary to news reports earlier this week which suggested average prices in the city-state had increased by 2.3 percent over the same period.
As with many media reports the story behind the headline is actually somewhat different.
According to official Singapore government data analysed by PropertyGurutoday, average per sqft prices of private resale condos did increase last month – but only in four of the city-state’s six regions. Overall the market showed a 0.98 percent month-on month decline in average resale prices. Transaction volumes also declined over the same period, from 303 during December 2013 to 229 last month.
Dragging the market average down was the Core Central Region (CCR) where average prices showed a dramatic double-digit 13.75 percent month-on-month decline. The other area to show a decline was the North East where average prices were down 5.44 percent. Increases were recorded in the Central (7.00 percent), West (5.59 percent), East (5.27 percent) and North (3.34 percent) regions.
The fact that four of the six regions rose, yet two declined substantially enough to drag the overall average into negative territory, underlines the importance that Singapore property buyers and investors get detailed and specific information about their intended purchase location and not rely on ‘whole market’ averages as a guide for market performance.
Just 24 transactions were recorded in the CCR last month compared with 128 in the same month last year. The CCR region encompasses Districts 9, 10 and 11, as well as downtown core and the island of Sentosa. Average prices for resale private property were recorded at S$1,805 psf in January 2014.
The GuruView:
To fully understand this apparent contradiction between the facts and the earlier headlines you need to recognise a few things about how a general property market index works.
Sales volumes in the secondary condominium market have dropped dramatically over the last 12 months, and while this gives an indication of where prices are likely to be heading in the future the most important point to note is where the current resale transactions are happening. This affects the general market index, which is used as a proxy for prices rising or falling. The problem is that a change in the types and localities of the properties being measured changes the index – and this may or may not reflect actual price changes.
Consider the following scenario.
In the outer regions of Singapore the prices per sqft are low, and in the core areas they are much higher. Therefore, if sales volumes have fallen, as a proportion of the total sales, in the Outside Central Region (OCR) and, at the same time, have proportionally increased in the Central Region (CR), then the overall market prices per sqft – as measured by the index – will have increased.
Note that this can happen despite the fact that resale condominiums in any given region may, in fact, have gone down in price. Put simply, an ‘apples with apples’ valuation is the only way to get an accurate picture of exactly what is happening to prices.
Similarly, the reverse could also be true. It’s entirely possible that the above scenario hasn’t happened – and rather prices have indeed been rising. The point is that without the ‘apples with apples’ analysis no intelligent conclusion can be made from looking simply at any aggregate index data. From the data provided we can only conclude that prices may have gone up, unless of course they went down – which is not helpful.
A simple way to see how this may happen is the following scenario.
Developers in the OCR may have discounted hard in the primary new homes market, meaning that potential buyers will shift their focus from the secondary market and into the new homes sector. However, new condo supply is more limited in the CR and therefore there is less capacity for people to switch between sectors. So, proportionately more demand remains in the secondary market. That is, you get more high per sqft priced units and fewer low priced psf units being measured by the index, and so the index will rise regardless of whether the actual units themselves rose or fell in price. This is a compositional effect that affects indexes – and so caution needs to be exercised when drawing conclusions from them, particularly over short time periods.
The key point is that very little can be understood from just the headline data on the secondary market. Potential property buyers and investors need to do their research, including talking to the agents on the ground, to see how prices are actually performing in the areas that interested them.
绝对谣言，不是涨百分之3点多吗。
附上Propertyguru文章的网址
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-management-news/2014/2/37341/the-reality-of-the-resale-market
SRX公布的2.3%也是二手私宅的数据，这才是奇怪的地方。可能是成交量实在太小的缘故，去年同期的三成都不到。
这个和我们的感觉和所接触的才接近
包括看URA网站1月份有成交的几个二手公寓，成交价基本上都是2011和2012的价位，都是跌的，而且市场又这么冷清，所以SRX公布涨2.3%的时候我就觉得不对头:L
果然是看psf的 这样的话涨也是符合现实 首先小户型psf比大户型高 而且高不是一点点 现在这么多cm下 贷款额受限 买家更多只买得起小户型 psf均价必然拉高 如果现在的情况psf均价掉1% 那么同楼盘同size的价格掉的恐怕不止1%了
guru的数据里 CCR和中部西部的价格掉的有点吓人
“Dragging the market average down was the Core Central Region (CCR) where average prices showed a dramatic double-digit 13.75 percent month-on-month decline. The other area to show a decline was the North East where average prices were down 5.44 percent. Increases were recorded in the Central (7.00 percent), West (5.59 percent), East (5.27 percent) and North (3.34 percent) regions.”
分了颜色.
Guru的这个解释非常好
举个极端的例子 OCR某个月交易量为零 CCR不变 那么全岛psf均价甚至可能忽然翻一番！
OCR是本地买家居多 大多靠贷款 CCR外国投资者和富人移民居多 贷款限制根本限制不了他们因为人家不靠贷款的啊
有钱人还是贷款的。很少有钱人不贷款买房子。不贷款买房子的多数是土豪。
银行存一大笔钱就能贷很多款了。
现在的信息相当混乱，不知道趋势咋样。
要搞一个完美的指数确实很难，要考虑的东西太多，如果市场上不同类型的房子的百分比不稳定，象现在小型的比例急剧增加，就更会使按psf算的指数失真严重。nus 搞的SRPI 把鞋盒区分开来，相对会好一些。
象这次SRX公布的租金升1%,大家都觉得不可思议，特别是有房出租的。在认识的这半年出租房子的人中，还没有以原租金出租的，都降低租金了。 我觉得是同样的问题，新租合同中很多新房，而且很多小房子（出租比例更高，因为小房子大都用来投资），所以就算实际租金在降，指数还是不停的升。
我看lakeside成交的几个好像都没有跌，有些反而感觉是冤大头。。。
请问你看的是哪个区， 跌的这么多？
香港发展商的一手房开始降价，这边预计会跟进。
如郊区的psf从1000降至850-900，那么700尺的两房售价在600K左右。
即使这样，住1000尺组屋的人也未必愿意换房，毕竟面积很重要。
当前家庭收入中位数大概在7800左右，三卧室是合理户型，因此ZF也有让公寓回归合理价位的意愿。
另外，希望购买BTO的单身和家庭增多，COV锐减也会吸引买家购入原本高价的好地段组屋。
现在的核心是公寓交易量日渐稀少，市况疲弱，因此1月份环比下跌1%且呈现进一步走低的势头。
中部西部掉那么多
倒是很好奇为什么东部能涨7%