政虎會贏，還是混蛋會贏？？
As we predicted when this began, Muddy Waters got in over their heads tackling Olam.The rumor in Hong Kong is that Muddy Waters is the cash strapped and needed a fast Olam victory, but choosing Olam as a target was ill advised. As it stands now, Olam will outlive Muddy Waters in financial terms.Olam is one of Temasek’s many holding and that is a problem for anyone seeking to collapse a company, Temasek is a powerhouse. Temasek is not your regular investment fund Muddy Waters so easily scare, Temasek have wider responsibility, one to the Sovereign Nation of Singapore and it’s people. Temasek could stand to lose 10′s of billions if Olam were to fail and the Singapore Financial Hub, Singapore Stock Exchange left tarnished. It will not happen.Temasek was incorporated in 1974 with an initial portfolio valued at S$354 million. The portfolio has grown to a record S$198 billion in March 2012.
Temasek Portfolio Value
Muddy Waters should have known that, Singapore is not China, it is hard to build momentum against a company as Maddy Waters has done in China unless you can feed off the Western World’s Xenophobic fear of all things Chinese.This week the Muddy Waters problems took a turn for the worse.Straits Times reported, Kewalram Singapore, which owns 20 per cent of Olam, announced in an e-mail statement on Monday that it fully supported the commodities trader’s offering.It said it believed Olam’s proposed rights issue was “in the best interest of the company, and is an attractive investment opportunity for all shareholders, as well as being beneficial to the bondholders”.As far as the technicals go on Olam’s chart there is no doubt it is in dangerous territory, but the key number that Muddy Waters will be pushing for is a break below the rights issue price, under $1.30 and Olam will have trouble. So far the stock is resisting that level and is painting an ominous picture of the Muddy Waters Short position.The rights issue takes advantage of Muddy Waters cash position. Based on volume, I would estimate the short position averages around $1.90SGD, the brokers acting on behalf of the short seller would have a safety margin of around 30% so the stock needs to run to $2.34 to rid the company of that short seller.The average short away from the short seller looks to be around 1.68SGD, so they will become buyers at the $1.86SGD point.
Here is m chart from last week, so far we are in line with my expectations.Click to see the Chart.
先買10張再說。。。:lol
苍蝇不叮无缝的蛋
今天的股价还是。。唉。。。>
多少买的？
政虎會贏，還是混蛋會贏？？
介个问题问的不是很清楚啊！！！
政虎中枪鸟！;P
现在主要的问题时，muddy water是从哪里short的股票！
之前出了新闻以后， 新加坡市场是基本上是借不到olam去做空的。即使之前借到的，也有被大股东召回的。
但是Olam的股价之后还在跌，那么是谁在卖呢？
这个答案只能猜，但是我可以尝试分析一下借空股票卖空的 “货源“， 可能根本不在亚洲。
对于国际机构来说，他可以从其他机构那里借货。 Olam 是指数成份股， 所以全球可能有很多基金或者投资组合都有Olam的股票，而这些机构持有Olam的比例占其总投资的比例， 可能很小。 所以Olam大跌他们不会特别在乎，而为了保持对指数的跟踪， 他们可能会继续选择持有Olam的股票。 但是可能会把Olam 和手里的其他股票一起出借给别人， 挣个利息。 而Muddy water和其关联方可能借空的货源就是这里。
所以楼主说的Muddy Water到新年的时候就要抉择的立场是站不住脚的。你发right也好， 人家可以继续空， 只要这个世界上还有货可以借。
股价说明一切！
知道鸟！Mark一下！
就目前的情况来看，奥兰的股价在未来几个月很可能会依然起伏不定。随着奥兰采取“迅速及果断”的行动，在12月4日宣布发行债券附加凭单，并获得新加坡政府投资公司淡马锡控股的支持，相信这针强心剂应可消除投资者对公司财政健康的部分疑虑。:lol
做空也可以挣钱。
你太强了！:victory: